[password]seabird14
[position]30 07 S 038 43 E
[heading] 220T
[speed] 7.6ts
[weather] 20 kts NW, 1003 mb, 3-4m confused seas, 100% cc
[status] 351nm to South Africa. Sailing sgl reefed main plus staysail, 220T at 7.6kts. We had a long night sailing through 7 hours of lightning and rain, with scary lightning strikes all around us, the closest less than a mile from us. We had fortunately gotten our 2nd reef in the main in advance of the oncoming low, and while putting in the reef we noted that there were a few birds trying to take refuge on Kailani - this has happened to us before, and has been an indication of a really bad storm ahead. So far on this run to S Africa our forecast model data (we get the GFS and European gribs) have not agreed with each other, nor with reality. Reality has been consistently harder than forecast, not just because it always feels worse when the wind howls and skies open up at night! The L ended up forming and strengthening upwind of us, ahead of predicted as we were due to pass through the center before it really consolidated. Therefore, we ended up intersecting the L on its leading edge, making for 30-35 kt winds all night, with some higher gusts during the embedded squalls. Even with all the fancy computer generated wx models and ability to get more wx data than ever before, turns out the birds were the best forecasters! The L is predicted to move SE through our course line over the next 6 hours, and based on the decreasing winds we are currently experiencing, this is happening quicker than predicted. Now we just hope that the winds on the back side are as predicted, less those on the leading edge. We should have about an hour as the L passes with relative calm winds (albeit still the residual confused seas) during which we can get rigged for a port tack, or potentially to heave-to and get some rest before we have to deal with the next L, forecast for tomorrow afternoon. The heave-to call is dependent upon the wx and our overall endurance levels after another 8 hours or so of battling the elements. We are hanging in there. All well on board.
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