[password] 5Fku_7$H
[position]34 19.9S, 174 04.1E
[weather]Wind W 1-3, Bar 1014.0, Sky 95% stratocumulus, Sea NW 1m long roll
[speed]6 knots
[heading]175 T
[status]Motor sailing on autopilot towards Tikitiki Island, entrance to BoI: 44.5 nm to go.
Grey morning and long, slow roll provides welcome relief from yesterday evening. Around 1600 the wind went very light, the sky was already filled with squalls and rain all around, but the sea was a confused mess of high waves at 2+ meters, with a few at 3+ meters. With no wind, it was a mess. Velic was rolling 40 degrees side to side. Prognostication also confused the skipper: How long will the frontal band last? Will the squalls bring severe winds or just rain? Will the wind fill in after the frontal band? Do we switch to auto-pilot mode? Can the autopilot steer in these heavy and confused seas? And, of course, the trusty windvane could not steer without wind, so Velic was beam-on to the sea. Finally the prognosticator, and procastinator (me), remembered that the GFS grib forecast ~10 knot wind all night. Too light to sail in, especially in this messy sea. After attempts at a few different tactics, two and a half hours later found us motoring with the auto-pilot steering; main double-reefed and strapped in tight, jib down on deck and pole stowed.
Paul Krugman writes a lot about economic forecasting, and whether or not economists fess-up to being wrong sometimes. Well, sometimes it's beyond GREAT to be very, very wrong. Yesterday morning I was fussing about the forecast +3m swell. As it turned out, we did experience +3m waves, but all from the NW; that is following seas driven by the local winds. Fantastic! Velic can handle following seas quite well, even +3m on short periods. And, even better, the GFS grib forecast was correct that by this morning there would be, essentially, no waves.
Now I am fussing about fuel consumption, hours to run, and what's left in the tank. Since the tachometer & engine hour-meter died in Fiji, fuel consumption is based on (hopefully accurate) log entries of engine on-off times. Oh well, what else is there to do?
I'll go out on a limb: It looks like we'll arrive in Opua late afternoon or early evening today.
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